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Posted by: funnytodd   
November 26th,

how lousy will the recession that is COVID-19?

The real question is perhaps not whether you will have a recession, but exactly exactly exactly how deep and exactly how long – and whether investors look set to be disappointed or relieved.

Karen Ward

As COVID-19 continues to distribute, issue has quickly shifted from whether you will see a worldwide recession to how dreadful the recession may be. Could it be deep but quick? Or deep and extended? As investors, the question that is next want to ask ourselves is exactly what is the marketplace priced for. And can it is relieved, or disappointed?

The severity of the downturn will likely depend on three factors: the time it takes for the disease to be contained, the pre-existing vulnerabilities in the global economy, and the global policy response in our view.

The most difficult of the to analyse confidently is just how long it may need for the virus become included and also for the dependence on travel limitations and social distancing to reduce.

Asia and Southern Korea, that have been one of the primary to have the results of the herpes virus, turn off their economies early and saw illness prices fall. Because they go back to work, disease rates have actually remained low. It really is too quickly to definitely declare success, but all is well so far. The shock has been sharp but seemingly short-lived in these economies.

A lot of the developed world is an amount of months behind these economies that are asian and continues to be in a amount of financial lockdown, with little to no quality about whenever that may end. Read the rest of this entry »